You should probably think about selling some of your gold when any of the following become true:

• When real interest rate become greater than 2%. Inflation is currently 2.91% and short-term interest rates are 0.65%, so real interest rates are now -2.26%.
• When the Dow/Gold ratio returns to a value of around 5.5. The Dow is currently 12,331 so the ratio is now 8. For the ratio to return to 5.5 gold would have to rise to $2,242/ounce (at the current level of the Dow).
• When the gold-oil ratio reaches 20 barrels/ounce. With oil at $104/barrel the ratio is currently 15. The gold oil ratio has exceeded 20 in the past but rarely remains at this level for long.
• Sell when the price falls 10% below the 25 day moving average. Applied to the prices since 1979 this seems to give the optimum stop loss.The 25 day moving average is currently 1,619.
• Gold seems to reach cyclical peaks every 22 months. The last peak was in August/September of this year so it is possible that it will reach another peak in June 2013.
• Gold performs best when the yield curve is under 1%. It performs worst when the yield curve is between 1-2%.