When will gold fall?

Stocks......

“When even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips, it’s time to sell” - Joseph P. Kennedy

An old Wall Street saying has it that when everybody’s getting into the market and even the shoeshine boy is giving stock tips (or the barber/hairdresser or the taxi driver or the waiter or the bartender), then it’s time to sell. Supposedly, Joseph P. Kennedy knew that it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips.

....or gold

The gold market is slightly different. The dumb money in stocks may be the shoe shine boys, but with gold it is the central banks. Money guys don't like gold.They are the last people in the world to want to own gold, and when they start buying it this is an indication that the market has peeked. Equally when they sell gold this is a good buying opportunity.

People in the West, especially the US, tend to have an ethnocentric view of the world. In understanding the gold price this is a disadvantage since most of the world's gold is held in Asia and to understand the direction of the gold price you need to take into account the actions of people in this part of the world. Central banks own about 29,927 tonnes of gold. This represents about 18% of the world's gold. Much of the other 135,518 tonnes is held in the form of jewelry.

Traditionally people in Asia and the Middle East have kept much of their savings in gold, preferring this to paper assets. Often they don't even have bank accounts which they consider too risky.

They buy gold in the form of high karatage jewelry usually 21k, 22k or 23k, which doesn't cost much more than the spot price of gold. This is a smart way to buy gold, because they get the pleasure of wearing it and flaunting their wealth, which they could not do with coins or bars or share certificates in GLD.

....the current price was raised by the investors, traders and the short-time speculators.